Trade Surplus Jumps to $2.8 Billion in September, Nearly Triple Forecasts, as Gold Imports Slump

Australia’s goods trade surplus widened sharply in September, coming in well above expectations as imports fell and resource exports picked up.

The headline numbers

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, released on Thursday 5 November, the seasonally adjusted balance on goods rose by $2.64 billion to a surplus of $2.83 billion in September, up from $184 million in August. Economists had expected a surplus of about $940 million, according to Investing.com.

• Exports: up 2.3% to $48.43 billion.
• Imports: down 3.3% to $45.61 billion.
• Trend surplus: $3.87 billion, up from $2.87 billion in August.

What drove it

On the export side, other mineral fuels, the category that includes LNG, rose $502 million (6.6%), and metals excluding non-monetary gold jumped $382 million (23.5%). Metal ores and minerals rose 2.3%, while coal, coke and briquettes fell 3.5%. Rural exports rose 3.6%, helped by an 11.3% increase in meat and meat preparations.

Imports fell mainly because of a $1.10 billion (34.7%) drop in non-monetary gold, a volatile category, and a $359 million (33.7%) fall in civil aircraft and confidentialised items. Consumption goods imports fell 2.2% and capital goods 2.5%, while intermediate goods rose 0.9%, including a 2.3% rise in fuels and lubricants.

The price story underneath

The ABS’s commodity price data shows how the energy shock is flowing through Australia’s trade. Compared with September 2025, unit values were:

• LNG exports: up 27.6%.
• Iron ore fines exports: down 18.4%, and iron ore lump down 15.6%.
• Diesel imports: up 66.8%, with aviation kerosene up 66.3%, gasoline up 42.0% and crude petroleum up 28.7%.

The surplus has been far from steady this year: the seasonally adjusted goods balance slipped into deficit in March and again in May, before returning to surplus from June. A year earlier, in September 2025, the surplus was $3.05 billion.

Why it matters

A stronger trade position supports national income at a time when the domestic economy is slowing. But for Australian businesses, the price data is the bigger story: fuel import costs have risen much faster than the prices received for the country’s biggest export, iron ore. The Reserve Bank’s November Statement on Monetary Policy noted that crude oil and refined product prices have risen by 20–25% and are materially higher than assumed in its August forecasts.

The ABS will publish October trade figures on 3 December 2026.

Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade in Goods, September 2026 (5 November 2026); Investing.com (5 November 2026); RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, November 2026.