Coles shares suffered their steepest one-day fall in more than six years on Friday 30 October after the supermarket said competitors’ promotions were biting and first-half earnings would be flat. The stock closed 7.7% lower at $21.66, Reuters reported, its weakest trade since late March 2020, having fallen as much as 12.8% during the session.

The numbers

According to Market Index’s summary of the first-quarter update:

  • Supermarket sales rose 3.6% to $10.32 billion.
  • Supermarket comparable sales rose 2.7%, slowing from 4.6% a year earlier. Woolworths reported 6.9% growth in Australian food sales earlier in the week.
  • eCommerce sales jumped 22.9% to $1.62 billion, lifting online penetration to 15.7%.
  • Liquor sales fell 1.3% to $831 million.
  • First-half supermarket EBIT is expected to be flat at about $1.23 billion, which Market Index said was roughly 7% below UBS forecasts.

Coles also said supermarket sales growth had moderated in the first four weeks of the second quarter, and that it was relaunching its Every Day Price program to regain momentum.

What Coles said

“While Supermarkets sales growth remained in line with the prior quarter, we know household budgets are under pressure and customers are shopping more deliberately across retailers and channels,” chief executive Leah Weckert said. Reuters reported that Coles said it was taking “deliberate actions to strengthen momentum”.

What analysts said

Jefferies analyst Michael Simotas said “price investment is required, which combined with operating deleverage and higher fuel costs implies a meaningful consensus downgrade.” RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Toner called it a “disappointing update”, the ABC reported.

Market Index noted the update was a sharp change of tone from the full-year result on 25 August, when Coles said it entered the 2027 financial year “in a strong position, with supermarkets having gained market share”. It also pointed out that a defensive rotation out of AI-linked stocks had pushed the consumer staples index to its highest level since August 2022, leaving Coles exposed when the downgrade landed.

The bigger picture

Coles is the latest in a run of cautious retail updates this week, after JB Hi-Fi, Super Retail Group and Wesfarmers all flagged slower trading. With the Reserve Bank expected to lift rates on Tuesday, the supermarket price war looks set to be fought over shoppers who are, in Coles’ words, shopping more deliberately.

Sources: Reuters, via US News (30 October 2026); Market Index (30 October 2026); ABC News (30 October 2026).